Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Market bottom??

I dont think we will see capitulation day this time. In my view today will mark a intermediate or low for the market. We will see. I put some money into the market today.
My reasoning in DOW is at year low today and market is over sold. Let us see.

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Thougths about Market action

The volume is below average for last few weeks. So it is difficult to figure out the market bias (up/down) at this point. Big boys (institutions) are not really participating in the action now. They are not dropping shares either.

There is lot cash sitting on the side lines.

Me same. waiting on side lines for now

Friday, June 13, 2008

A look at my go to list in previous post

Self review: It doesnt seem to have a theam or industry bias. I will have to refine it to have more focus.
Senarios to work on
If market turns around, where to invest. As of now Nasdaq.
Which areas in Nasdaq. SEMI, Software, Wireless, Inernet??? To decide
What about International (China, Brazil, Russia, India) May be Brazil for now. China need a closer look . I need to compile a go to list for china. As of now only MR.
What about Agriculture

A look at Market

S& P - Drifting down. May hold at 1325.
Nasdaq - if it close above 2436 (50 ma), then we will see. Other wise down
Oil (XOI) - at 50 day. will have to see how it is going to act
Gold : Broke 200 day (xau). The oil may follow down
looks like the chips are falling in place for a stock market upside
My go to list as of now

SID
NUVA
V or MA
DE
YUM
CTSH or INFI
DIOD
QCOM
MR

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Nasdaq also follows the down party

Even though Nasdaq is showing more more weakness, it is showing better relative strength than other indeces
In the tech land, a closer look shows
SWH - software holders is the one shows maximum relative strength. Networking, internet holder , sox all looks same

Sunday, June 8, 2008

Best sector to go long and short

Long:
DBA : Agriculture
Short:
$DDX - Disk drivers
SOX - Semis

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

More on Markets

S& P - Falling through resistances 200, 20ema, 50 day. but no big volume. This is going to hang around in this area for a while before it takes a decision to go up or down.
Conclusion : Be on the side line until something develops

Same case with Nasdaq. But if S& P and Nasdaq turns around to upside, i will put money in Nasdaq compared to S&P

Oil and commodities seems to be at an intermediate top. So same strategy. be on the side lines

Monday, June 2, 2008

Maket my take

Volumes are down across the board. So institutions are just on the side lines
S& P , Nasdaq failed second time at 200 day MA. For me the bias is to the downside now.
On a weekly chart
S& P, Nasdaq, Dow on downtrend. Transports made a double top
Finacials, consumer discretionary, Health care, biotech down
Housing down
Retailer bearly above 200 day. but in downtrend
Oil , Gold uptrend. Defense holding
Yeah. The picture is not good. Most of the sectors are down.
In general, Gas prices sky rocketing, consumer spending less
Economy is in a downtrend.