Saturday, September 27, 2008

Market Stance : Long

Duration : 2 to 3 weeks - Long
My exposure : 40 % long . Rest cash. No stake in individual stocks. Long on index funds SPY, QQQQ, XLK from Sept 23rd.
Reasoning :
Recent pull back on low volume
Follow through day on Thursday
Wamu failure did not bring the market down. All shows near term bottom
New lows settle down

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Right and Wrong

This is a short and sweet update

The US markets are in confirmed rally now. Major indexes like sp 500, nasdaq biotech are participating . Down are commodities and oil . So it looks like my bottom call was good. As of EURUSD, it broke the support and my call was wrong. Now look for short opportunities

This is a game of averages. Let us see this market rally is going to play out

Saturday, July 26, 2008

EURUSD - Today's outlook

EURUSD is in a trading channel now. Now it is at the bottom of the trading channel. From a technical perspective, there are multiple support at this level. See image below. There is a good chance that it will move up. Time to toe in and take a long position now. If it break down (closes below on a daily basis) then get out. I think it is a low risk entry.


Bottom - I guess this time it is...



Well, I was wrong last time jumping the gun in june calling the bottom. OK. But got out of the market with little damage soon it failed. Looking back i think i needed to do that. No body can predict the bottom to the dime.

Now did we see the bottom already. I think so when S& P hit 1200 in mid July. I am toeing in again. Waiting for a dip to get in the market. This time not looking for the best names in the markets or market favorites. Strategy is to buy stocks which already declared earnings and raised their outlook. No more buying of stocks which has earnings in the future dates. Also want to get into couple of badly beaten good names like Goldman sacks. So two prong strategy...
beaten down good ones and the ones already declared earnings.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

Market bottom??

I dont think we will see capitulation day this time. In my view today will mark a intermediate or low for the market. We will see. I put some money into the market today.
My reasoning in DOW is at year low today and market is over sold. Let us see.

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Thougths about Market action

The volume is below average for last few weeks. So it is difficult to figure out the market bias (up/down) at this point. Big boys (institutions) are not really participating in the action now. They are not dropping shares either.

There is lot cash sitting on the side lines.

Me same. waiting on side lines for now

Friday, June 13, 2008

A look at my go to list in previous post

Self review: It doesnt seem to have a theam or industry bias. I will have to refine it to have more focus.
Senarios to work on
If market turns around, where to invest. As of now Nasdaq.
Which areas in Nasdaq. SEMI, Software, Wireless, Inernet??? To decide
What about International (China, Brazil, Russia, India) May be Brazil for now. China need a closer look . I need to compile a go to list for china. As of now only MR.
What about Agriculture

A look at Market

S& P - Drifting down. May hold at 1325.
Nasdaq - if it close above 2436 (50 ma), then we will see. Other wise down
Oil (XOI) - at 50 day. will have to see how it is going to act
Gold : Broke 200 day (xau). The oil may follow down
looks like the chips are falling in place for a stock market upside
My go to list as of now

SID
NUVA
V or MA
DE
YUM
CTSH or INFI
DIOD
QCOM
MR

Wednesday, June 11, 2008

Nasdaq also follows the down party

Even though Nasdaq is showing more more weakness, it is showing better relative strength than other indeces
In the tech land, a closer look shows
SWH - software holders is the one shows maximum relative strength. Networking, internet holder , sox all looks same

Sunday, June 8, 2008

Best sector to go long and short

Long:
DBA : Agriculture
Short:
$DDX - Disk drivers
SOX - Semis

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

More on Markets

S& P - Falling through resistances 200, 20ema, 50 day. but no big volume. This is going to hang around in this area for a while before it takes a decision to go up or down.
Conclusion : Be on the side line until something develops

Same case with Nasdaq. But if S& P and Nasdaq turns around to upside, i will put money in Nasdaq compared to S&P

Oil and commodities seems to be at an intermediate top. So same strategy. be on the side lines

Monday, June 2, 2008

Maket my take

Volumes are down across the board. So institutions are just on the side lines
S& P , Nasdaq failed second time at 200 day MA. For me the bias is to the downside now.
On a weekly chart
S& P, Nasdaq, Dow on downtrend. Transports made a double top
Finacials, consumer discretionary, Health care, biotech down
Housing down
Retailer bearly above 200 day. but in downtrend
Oil , Gold uptrend. Defense holding
Yeah. The picture is not good. Most of the sectors are down.
In general, Gas prices sky rocketing, consumer spending less
Economy is in a downtrend.

Thursday, May 29, 2008

Market - My take

Market still in correction
Looks like S& P, Nasdaq and Dow is going to be in this area for a while as bulls and bears are not interested in pulling the plug in either direction.
A lot going to be depend on energy prices. I am keeping a close watch.

On my radar are
Russian & Brazil etf.
Visa and Mastercard

Saturday, May 24, 2008

Market - My take

Market in correction
  • Nasdaq - Failed at 200 day MA and 20 day ema. Nasdaq oversold on daily basis , but still overbrought on weekly basis. 4 distribution days in Nasdaq.3 or 4 accumulation days. In correction
  • S& P 500 - Failed at 200 MA and 20 EMA. Hitting 50 MA at the moment. Going to be in this range for a while 1375 - 1425. 4 distribution days and 2 accumulation days.
  • With 200 day MA poiniting down and market still below 200 day, the uptread we have for the last 2 months can not be taken with confidence.
  • During the last 2 months volume is below average. So institutions are not participating fully
My strategy : Either wiat for the market to clear the 200 day MA to the upside or wiat to see it come down little more and hit some of my buy points. Which will be oversold on weekly , hitting previous lows made 2 months before.

Sector watch : To add later. Just scanned it. Gold , Oil , Nuclear in uptrend.

Sunday, April 20, 2008

Market analysis

S& P and Nasdaq is in rally
Volume is below average.
Wait for the next pullback to get in
Other sectors to watch are
Midcaps and small caps are working. This move has some legs
Transports cleared 50 day in a good fashion
Oil and Oil services rocketing. Missed opertunity
Gold taking a break
Uranium going down. How long???
SOX is finially showing some life
Biotech traced back from 200 day